NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ed52abe98b51d86ab99861cc06420eb6514929975c80ee527e3ccc70c1b2cfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 7,789$3,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,962.3 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…f932backed Over | 51c | 7,000$3,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,570 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Over | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 2,507$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.81 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Over | 53c | 2,075$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.81 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 306$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.06 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…4b92backed Over | 50c | 300.83$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.67 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…07d4backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 52c | 145$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 51c | 83.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…59b1backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 52c | 70.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…a4a9backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…bc8abacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8658…41c6backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…d82dbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c28…bc2cbacked Over | 51c | 20.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 227.5this page
- Lakers vs. PelicansLakers won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.