NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcad9c918a34b235959d6840ab4c671801b94246a3f453707a0d94eb31e3e2c38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 2,937$2,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.12 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Over | 21c | 2,011$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.37 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 23c | 1,309$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.05 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 77c | 1,281$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.2 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Over | 46c | 637.26$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.18 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 40c | 405.79$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.85 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 64c | 289.38$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Under | 70c | 285.4$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 61c | 241.56$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 38c | 203.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 17c | 145.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 46c | 94.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Over | 42c | 80.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 155 | 35.5%55 W · 100 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 53c | 71.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 59c | 67.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 64.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 138 | 41.3%57 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 68c | 56.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 21c | 48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 53c | 47.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Over | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 181 | 49.7%90 W · 91 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 68c | 35.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Under | 74c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 53c | 25.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cac…988ebacked Under | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 68c | 21.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Under | 80c | 15.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f3…2c21backed Over | 79c | 14.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 77c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…415cbacked Under | 73c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5this page
- Senators vs. HurricanesHurricanes won
- Senators vs. Hurricanes: O/U 2.5Under won
- Senators vs. Hurricanes: O/U 3.5Under won
- Senators vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5Under won
- Senators vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5Under won
- Senators vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Hurricanes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.