Premier League · resolved market
Will Southampton vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcadb06aa8804ff4073f40b47edaea514200bb3afef06f455764c3083b18ab3cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 12c | 13,797$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9983…7fc7backed Yes | 23c | 10,021$2,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,716.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5196…f570backed No | 77c | 10,005$7,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,703.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…68b6backed No | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…f263backed Yes | 25c | 3,780$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,824.57 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 74c | 1,880$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…0ed4backed Yes | 24c | 801.35$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 23c | 687.36$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.45 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed No | 78c | 642.5$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked No | 77c | 600$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 37c | 562.02$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.96 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 24c | 471$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.96 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 24c | 435.29$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.82 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…8ce7backed No | 75c | 188.66$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.49 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 76c | 175.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.75 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd5…9801backed Yes | 35c | 160$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 78c | 148.72$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 76c | 80.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…ad7bbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 76c | 29.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500a…a800backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 76c | 18.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked No | 76c | 16.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 76c | 16.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Southampton vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw?this page
- Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-02?No won
- Will Southampton win on 2025-04-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.