Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb215838ec8be47a65af34186bfc321b1e79643b8e02ee9859756afdda54ef58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a63…269fbacked No | 66c | 500$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 38c | 456.98$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.38 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed No | 72c | 453.57$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.74 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…bea6backed Yes | 75c | 445.81$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 72c | 423.5$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.33 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 53c | 282.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 48c | 279.01$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.19 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 47c | 276.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.94 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 47c | 272.54$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 49c | 264.08$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.19 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 65c | 239.84$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.67 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 45c | 221.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.13 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 33c | 177.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 10c | 130.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.56 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 42c | 119.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 118.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbf…7df7backed No | 57c | 113.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 93.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 31c | 90.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 63c | 90.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 62c | 74.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 68c | 73.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 34c | 72.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 23c | 72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 15c | 70.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 64c | 62.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 27c | 58.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…4a2dbacked Yes | 49c | 54.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…42c3backed Yes | 40c | 53.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 40c | 52.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 35c | 48.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 73c | 46.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 46.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 46c | 44.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…77bebacked Yes | 47c | 42.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…6604backed No | 75c | 40.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 50c | 37.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 31c | 37.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf684…adf5backed Yes | 79c | 37.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…6b69backed No | 70c | 33.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8b…20d0backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c3…e952backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a30ebacked Yes | 46c | 29.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…76d4backed No | 54c | 25.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 45c | 25.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 21.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 53c | 21.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…501dbacked No | 56c | 18.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd27…0af7backed No | 55c | 18.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed Yes | 78c | 16.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 77c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 41°F or below on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on February 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.