Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b36294e3460406f2e2fab1624a56c92f4a210ebcd2328c4dadc7d0dfdd81ef6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 42c | 745.75$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.35 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 14c | 528.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 59c | 487.05$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.75 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 27c | 469.22$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.6 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 13c | 385.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 22c | 333.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 44c | 251.82$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.9 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 26c | 225.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 211.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 27c | 195.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 59c | 179.06$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbf…7df7backed Yes | 55c | 176.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d0…5ef8backed Yes | 60c | 169.13$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 168.81$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 33c | 150.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…8208backed No | 69c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed Yes | 74c | 135.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 22c | 121.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 47c | 119.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 64c | 117.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 112.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 14c | 107.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 58c | 105$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 24c | 100.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 98.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed Yes | 39c | 93.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 53c | 90.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 45c | 85.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 73c | 77.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 40c | 77.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…9d96backed Yes | 14c | 76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 75.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 74.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 74.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 45c | 73.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 70c | 71.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed No | 79c | 71.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 57c | 68.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…89babacked Yes | 44c | 67.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…9dbabacked Yes | 19c | 67.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 71c | 66.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 27c | 57.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 42c | 54.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 34c | 53.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 43c | 53.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…bea6backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46e3…0e11backed Yes | 30c | 49.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…a226backed Yes | 44c | 48.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…56ccbacked Yes | 68c | 46.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 43c | 46.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 48c | 44.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 25c | 43.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 44c | 43.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 30c | 37.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 80c | 37.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…4a2dbacked Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 64c | 36.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…7bcbbacked Yes | 51c | 35.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…fd57backed Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 75cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…6604backed No | 58c | 34.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 51c | 32.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed No | 72c | 31.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 48c | 31.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99cf…d4d2backed Yes | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 47c | 29.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 44c | 26.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 74c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2850…a9d6backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd266…f250backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 41°F or below on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on February 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.