Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Kayla Cross
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb444d2b6b99ae08edd05e4cba81fd6d9e238776c5ee3ef6c900c5fcb1803f69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kasintsevaof Kasintseva, Cross
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cross | 1c | 7,377$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Kasintseva | 67c | 1,978$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.74 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Cross | 33c | 1,400$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cross | 40c | 1,335$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.18 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kasintseva | 30c | 1,334$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.45 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Cross | 75c | 1,098$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.16 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Kasintseva | 72c | 844.12$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.96 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Kasintseva | 31c | 638.28$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.51 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kasintseva | 42c | 517.26$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.66 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Cross | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kasintseva | 60c | 375.86$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.1 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Kasintseva | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Cross | 35c | 275.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 129 | 42.6%55 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Cross | 74c | 199.48$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.81 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Cross | 44c | 169$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Kasintseva | 30c | 137$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.23 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Kasintseva | 63c | 131.39$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21e…0b18backed Cross | 11c | 101.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Kasintseva | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Cross | 33c | 73.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 319 | 48.9%156 W · 163 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Kasintseva | 43c | 51.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Cross | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…e7d4backed Kasintseva | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac0…540abacked Kasintseva | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…ecb3backed Kasintseva | 77c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cross | 47c | 38.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…b87ebacked Kasintseva | 35c | 30.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Kasintseva | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Kasintseva | 77c | 25.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…e8e8backed Kasintseva | 73c | 22.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d33…065cbacked Cross | 76c | 21.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…8967backed Kasintseva | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 77cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Kayla Crossthis page
- Kasintseva vs. Cross: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.