Lol · resolved market
Will T1 Make Finals at MSI 2026
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb652a5e911d18a529feef084c23ad10fe9135fea48402ef1f8690208aa73174
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x515e…8309backed No | 37c | 1,159$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.17 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b0…acdebacked Yes | 63c | 237.11$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…97eabacked Yes | 63c | 210.76$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…179ebacked Yes | 48c | 172.48$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5e…7761backed Yes | 63c | 165.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 106$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 51c | 94.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 61c | 89.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 197 | 44.2%87 W · 110 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked Yes | 57c | 86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked No | 60c | 78.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 63c | 72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -14.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…4829backed Yes | 48c | 67.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac0…28ebbacked Yes | 63c | 52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…a017backed Yes | 58c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 470 | 47.4%223 W · 247 L | +24.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 42c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 903 | 48.4%437 W · 466 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1613…6bb0backed No | 62c | 40.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…c395backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…304fbacked Yes | 65c | 27.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x313e…8498backed Yes | 61c | 25.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 63c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 21.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…aec5backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,521 | 50.6%769 W · 752 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will T1 Make Finals at MSI 2026this page
- Will Bilibili Gaming Make Finals at MSI 2026Yes won
- Will Furia Make Finals at MSI 2026No won
- Will G2 Make Finals at MSI 2026No won
- Will Hanhwa Life Esports Make Finals at MSI 2026Yes won
- Will Lyon Make Finals at MSI 2026No won
- Will Top Esports Make Finals at MSI 2026No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.