Serie A · resolved market
Will Parma vs. Bologna end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb678661983a038846ed21b63ca97f4d112f2500d72178ed14196208242c77e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa987…141dbacked No | 68c | 5,000$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 68c | 2,656$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.3 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,669$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.8 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 32c | 1,563$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39e…7800backed No | 68c | 1,093$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 68c | 1,092$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.59 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8accbacked Yes | 33c | 829$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.57 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 31c | 748$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.88 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4888…4866backed No | 69c | 525.93$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.04 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked Yes | 38c | 397.18$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 59c | 297.04$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.47 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 33c | 233.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…d067backed Yes | 45c | 177.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.67 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 32c | 167.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes | 33c | 166.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 156$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 67c | 103.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f91…9388backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 97.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1252…da0bbacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 69c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdacb…72f8backed Yes | 42c | 69.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8156…507cbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ea…158dbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…6abebacked No | 68c | 45.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 30c | 41.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05fa…7880backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 255 | 56.5%144 W · 111 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 184 | 59.2%109 W · 75 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Parma vs. Bologna end in a draw?this page
- Will Bologna win on 2025-11-02?Yes won
- Will Parma win on 2025-11-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.