Ligue 1 · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb755d169823f253eb23a258f35f3e6c6fca73225f6946941fc997be120d0cb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 45c | 2,939$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.07 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 2,397$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.59 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 49c | 1,043$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.84 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 68c | 1,000$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…94ccbacked Over | 36c | 831.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 16c | 560.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 60c | 491.23$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.34 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 35c | 342$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.3 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 193.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…f5bdbacked Over | 40c | 152.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 123 | 67.5%83 W · 40 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 40c | 111$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…c2f1backed Over | 34c | 89.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…f166backed Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 50c | 68.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 60.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 54c | 46.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 74c | 34.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 71c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 78c | 20.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 76c | 16.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…28b8backed Under | 76c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5this page
- OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 0.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Metz (-1.5)OGC Nice won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5)FC Metz won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-2.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.