Ligue 1 · resolved market

Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb46c2ca9e02c73a97375284b9e9857acdd8b62214d5c67e93407ed333e0cf2a

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: FC Metzof OGC Nice, FC Metz
Resolved: May 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $85,080
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $87,197

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,080 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x76be…120ebacked OGC Nice	51c	35,642$18,221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,221.46	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked FC Metz	49c	9,005$4,413 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,592.79	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+42.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Metz	48c	6,211$2,984 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,227.13	296	37.5%111 W · 185 L	+15.9wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed OGC Nice	54c	6,128$3,285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,284.52	82	54.9%45 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed FC Metz	54c	6,067$3,263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,803.49	1,916	45.5%872 W · 1,044 L	+13.7wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed FC Metz	48c	6,012$2,864 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,148.35	525	50.1%263 W · 262 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed OGC Nice	52c	5,890$3,063 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,062.63	89	44.9%40 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed FC Metz	46c	4,939$2,272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,666.9	52	57.7%30 W · 22 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Metz	48c	3,090$1,486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,603.69	873	44.3%387 W · 486 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed FC Metz	49c	3,000$1,470 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,530	24	66.7%16 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed OGC Nice	54c	2,779$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	59	47.5%28 W · 31 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed FC Metz	48c	2,581$1,242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,339.36	183	51.4%94 W · 89 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked FC Metz	49c	2,388$1,170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,217.88	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3673…2d13backed FC Metz	49c	2,101$1,029 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,071.51	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed FC Metz	48c	1,512$726 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$786.24	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed OGC Nice	51c	1,478$759 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$758.99	304	48%146 W · 158 L	-10.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed FC Metz	54c	1,453$784 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$669.26	227	45.8%104 W · 123 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FC Metz	48c	1,421$682 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$738.67	243	49.4%120 W · 123 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7793…33a6backed FC Metz	49c	1,167$568 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$598.65	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+44.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed FC Metz	49c	1,150$564 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$586.5	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+32%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked FC Metz	50c	1,137$569 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$568.5	8	50%4 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x716e…bcc2backed FC Metz	48c	1,019$489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$529.88	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed OGC Nice	52c	1,010$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+39%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed OGC Nice	52c	1,005$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.6	101	45.5%46 W · 55 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9366…a9f6backed FC Metz	49c	1,000$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51f0…3651backed FC Metz	49c	1,000$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6464…99adbacked FC Metz	49c	1,000$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed FC Metz	50c	772.55$384 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$389.04	47	53.2%25 W · 22 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked OGC Nice	54c	678.48$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.38	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	64cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed FC Metz	48c	667.15$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$346.92	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-6.2wins	-0.17per pick	54cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfb56…c1bcbacked OGC Nice	50c	530.44$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked FC Metz	49c	510$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.1	270	49.6%134 W · 136 L	+7.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed FC Metz	49c	510$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.94	331	48.6%161 W · 170 L	+10.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed FC Metz	51c	494.2$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.2	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed OGC Nice	52c	488.27$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.9	201	50.2%101 W · 100 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed OGC Nice	11c	432.74$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.61	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5b…9b61backed FC Metz	50c	401.37$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.37	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed OGC Nice	52c	385$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.2	229	27.5%63 W · 166 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked OGC Nice	51c	380$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.6	263	54%142 W · 121 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed FC Metz	49c	329.99$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.7	277	48.7%135 W · 142 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed FC Metz	47c	315.72$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.51	464	50.4%234 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed OGC Nice	32c	312.5$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed FC Metz	50c	197.48$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.95	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed FC Metz	67c	194.62$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.65	331	45%149 W · 182 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed FC Metz	64c	156.72$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.72	17	94.1%16 W · 1 L	+5.7wins	+0.33per pick	61cpaid	+56%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5c76…862dbacked FC Metz	49c	153.06$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.06	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38c4…7c65backed FC Metz	49c	142$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.42	52	61.5%32 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	67cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked OGC Nice	36c	126.72$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.62	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-19%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed FC Metz	49c	122.42$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.6	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+2.4wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8492…f17cbacked OGC Nice	56c	92.63$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.65	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.8wins	-0.39per pick	54cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed OGC Nice	52c	88.5$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.02	102	48%49 W · 53 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed OGC Nice	20c	85$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	90	50%45 W · 45 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed OGC Nice	54c	74.07$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked FC Metz	48c	73$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.96	51	51%26 W · 25 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked FC Metz	48c	66$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.32	86	44.2%38 W · 48 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed FC Metz	49c	60.8$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.87	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed FC Metz	51c	60$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.4	89	57.3%51 W · 38 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed FC Metz	49c	59.88$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.38	44	40.9%18 W · 26 L	-4.1wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e01…e34abacked OGC Nice	51c	58.58$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-4.7wins	-0.25per pick	51cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed FC Metz	48c	58.25$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.29	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+3.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed FC Metz	48c	57$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.64	123	67.5%83 W · 40 L	+11.9wins	+0.10per pick	58cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FC Metz	44c	55.4$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.02	1,415	40.8%577 W · 838 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15cf…4d9bbacked OGC Nice	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked OGC Nice	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked FC Metz	48c	47.63$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.77	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72ee…a848backed OGC Nice	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x341b…b92cbacked OGC Nice	54c	39.2$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.17	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed FC Metz	47c	39$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.67	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab92…19e5backed FC Metz	50c	36.4$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed FC Metz	49c	34.81$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.81	49	51%25 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed FC Metz	48c	33.44$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.39	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked OGC Nice	51c	31.51$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.04	126	47.6%60 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae4…e4a2backed FC Metz	50c	31.01$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed FC Metz	65c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.6	67	59.7%40 W · 27 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x967b…46babacked OGC Nice	52c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	5	60%3 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked FC Metz	58c	29.41$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.47	55	60%33 W · 22 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed FC Metz	49c	28$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.35	37	64.9%24 W · 13 L	+3.4wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b4d…dd64backed OGC Nice	50c	25.64$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.82	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x78d7…291dbacked FC Metz	61c	24$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.36	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed FC Metz	45c	22.23$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.23	178	17.4%31 W · 147 L	-16.2wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed FC Metz	48c	21$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.92	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2827…64f6backed FC Metz	63c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.77	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeceb…29a4backed FC Metz	49c	20.81$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.51	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6444…672ebacked FC Metz	50c	20.02$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.01	23	82.6%19 W · 4 L	+4.2wins	+0.18per pick	65cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb63a…7637backed OGC Nice	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	32	68.8%22 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	65cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed FC Metz	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	76	48.7%37 W · 39 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5)this page
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 0.5Under won
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5Under won
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5Under won
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5Under won
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5Under won
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: FC Metz (-1.5)OGC Nice won
Spread: OGC Nice (-2.5)FC Metz won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event