Ligue 1 · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c151c8aba2b77660b70a461ea921a318ad2a82b97d6423352ea0dc13110df60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x912a…2e6abacked Over | 62c | 13,561$8,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,407 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…6bfebacked Under | 38c | 8,259$3,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,120.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 4,396$2,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,029.89 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 54c | 3,771$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040.74 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 36c | 3,643$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,336.4 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 47c | 2,299$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.42 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 46c | 2,202$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ed…8db7backed Over | 54c | 1,959$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Under | 49c | 1,847$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Under | 38c | 1,663$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.06 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Over | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8826…a723backed Under | 38c | 1,351$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 37c | 1,200$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Over | 52c | 1,008$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.9 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Under | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked Under | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 829.99$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.08 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 37c | 737.84$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.82 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 66c | 644.66$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.65 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 37c | 642.67$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.71 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 35c | 617.23$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.97 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 59c | 599$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.37 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 23c | 571.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 36c | 472.16$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.06 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 37c | 400.34$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.4 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Under | 35c | 389.33$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.06 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Under | 45c | 338.51$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 45c | 311.42$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Over | 65c | 309.23$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 302.53$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.97 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Under | 45c | 298$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…6f39backed Under | 80c | 251.83$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Under | 48c | 218.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 45c | 201.32$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.73 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 38c | 197.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.37 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 37c | 170$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…1fadbacked Over | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 36c | 147.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 140.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 27c | 139$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 37c | 129$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 55c | 126.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 61c | 106.88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Over | 58c | 102.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb15…8393backed Under | 40c | 101.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…6b99backed Under | 46c | 99.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 55c | 97.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 63c | 86.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 29c | 70.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Over | 55c | 69.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 44c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 33c | 60.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 37c | 60.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Under | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 39c | 59.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 35c | 59.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 45c | 57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 60c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 46c | 42.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…c62abacked Under | 36c | 42.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…cbfbbacked Under | 41c | 40.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 37c | 36.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 37c | 33.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c4…c3b0backed Under | 38c | 31.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…957fbacked Over | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 38c | 30.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf30…930fbacked Over | 62c | 30.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed Under | 49c | 30.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 53c | 28.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…4976backed Over | 64c | 26.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8684…bfaabacked Under | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 71c | 24.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 56c | 24.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…ae58backed Over | 59c | 21.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 59c | 21.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5this page
- OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 0.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5Under won
- OGC Nice vs. FC Metz: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Metz (-1.5)OGC Nice won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5)FC Metz won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-2.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.