Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbb2d14a13030d45278187d122040af689d67a8c8e4797a7bced8311b95f6a95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 29c | 895.67$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.7 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 550.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 360.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 338.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 294$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked No | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 26c | 244.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 80c | 238.01$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 74c | 202.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…031dbacked No | 75c | 192.66$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 14c | 178.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 69c | 175.26$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 79c | 171.76$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 164.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 150.18$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 36c | 139.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 14c | 130.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 14c | 126.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…4aeabacked Yes | 30c | 125.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 76c | 122.75$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 75c | 110.83$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 110.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 17c | 108.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed No | 79c | 97.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa831…031ebacked Yes | 31c | 91.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 75c | 77.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b8…e234backed Yes | 34c | 70.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 68.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…befcbacked Yes | 29c | 64.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771c…809abacked Yes | 22c | 61.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 56.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 19c | 55.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…a460backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Yes | 31c | 39.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 71c | 38.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 29c | 36.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 68c | 35.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…d0a6backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…1d37backed No | 75c | 32.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 74c | 29.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed No | 77c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 79c | 22.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 80c | 21.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 79c | 16.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e52…f194backed No | 78c | 13.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.