TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,853 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xadf5…20f8backed No0c3,602$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.052850%14 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes21c915.1$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.234,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes24c529.66$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.031,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes63c500.96$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.085,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a99…e614backed Yes15c499.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.9918116.6%30 W · 151 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed No80c478.43$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.825356.6%30 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No6c412.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.746219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes18c356.07$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.1723743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4808…5309backed Yes5c334.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.28862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+251.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes26c323.01$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.44,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c276.3$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.5817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c258.73$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x162e…fe52backed No70c240.7$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.914037.5%15 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x26d1…e736backed Yes38c218.36$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.86540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes24c215.08$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.661,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes11c170$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.498738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No59c159.6$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.383,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes37c155.14$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.441,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes18c153.67$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.742,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes26c144.06$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.6681234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes28c134.51$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.311,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No61c124.51$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.821,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No61c121.09$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.492,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes26c116.79$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.991,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No31c116.49$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.017,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No16c115.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.972,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No29c110.11$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0684124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes17c99.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.9812638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes34c93.4$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6468335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c5…76c2backed No58c90.77$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.336852.9%36 W · 32 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed Yes24c88.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2718845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes35c87.49$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5565043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes28c76.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.851,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No48c70.22$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.424,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No75c66.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.642976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes69c63.49$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.711,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No70c61.49$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.042,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c57.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.899,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No69c57.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.716548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c56.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.033,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked No80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes40c46.96$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2749547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes40c44.45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.617,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b04…f467backed Yes44c42.34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.68944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No72c41.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0270770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes51c41.17$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.291,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.71,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes35c38.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.16421.9%14 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed Yes30c34.91$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3819648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes30c33.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8311644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No80c32.74$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.146444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf64f…99d7backed No66c29.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.473948.7%19 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-13.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No72c28.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No68c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.044,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed No76c27.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.826958%40 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5147…f078backed No69c27.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes43c26.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0549750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71d9…4348backed No61c25.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.381154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…6c41backed No59c25.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.716241.9%26 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No70c21.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf05a…d78fbacked No76c19.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.112670.6%89 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5127…6f96backed No76c19.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.112374%91 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1ac…a062backed No75c19.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.63580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+31.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fcc…788cbacked No60c19.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.523171%22 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No59c16.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1034057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No74c16.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5437669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No71c16.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.851,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No77c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5554966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No76c13.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.511,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02cd…cedcbacked No76c13.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102369.6%16 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick78cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.