Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbd6b57c0e70f367c69f10de5365e1c49953d387648c7f09819f94f87f70dec5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 923.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 852.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 734.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 22c | 557.08$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.4 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 8c | 495$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 9c | 484.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 11c | 467.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 439.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 434.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 12c | 420$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 380.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 28c | 380.16$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 73c | 343.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.61 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 20c | 307.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 11c | 294.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 19c | 292.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 11c | 254.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 7c | 211.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 180.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 12c | 149.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…aab6backed No | 74c | 134.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 28c | 120.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 17c | 109.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 17c | 107.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 15c | 102.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 30c | 101.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ac…7739backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…35e2backed Yes | 12c | 93.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked Yes | 12c | 93.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 25c | 89.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 84.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 18c | 75.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 24c | 73.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2d…35f8backed Yes | 14c | 70.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 30c | 55.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked No | 77c | 53.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddc…b4f0backed Yes | 20c | 52.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 22.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 69c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 71c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked No | 77c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.