Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b6b8036c1fe11275760df06291718134db272ce19ace8cf9690f60959e51d5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 46c | 1,297$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.61 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 62c | 839.69$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.55 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 47c | 818.86$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.23 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 743.19$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 37c | 644.28$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.06 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 2c | 546.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…675cbacked No | 4c | 530.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 52cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 7c | 440.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 425$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 50c | 417.31$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.57 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 46c | 408.45$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.83 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 51c | 407.7$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.36 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 47c | 349.73$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.81 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 280$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 50c | 272.58$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 38c | 261.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.95 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 256.93$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed Yes | 35c | 256.7$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.66 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 41c | 244.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.65 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 62c | 242.01$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.77 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 43c | 235.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 230.25$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 53c | 204.97$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 62c | 193.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.39 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 23c | 191$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 62c | 168.19$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 8c | 165.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 37c | 162.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 54c | 160.42$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 60c | 157.76$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 156.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 131.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked Yes | 38c | 130.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 129.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f99…5936backed Yes | 52c | 128.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 30c | 127.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.59 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 40c | 117.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 111.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 42c | 110.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 105.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 105$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…f0ddbacked Yes | 48c | 104.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 24c | 100.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ac…7739backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 46c | 99.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 56c | 94.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 41c | 94.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 93.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 54c | 92.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked No | 48c | 91.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 49c | 87.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…f7abbacked No | 65c | 87.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 41c | 76.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 66c | 70.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 69.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…aab6backed Yes | 32c | 62.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e99…17bdbacked Yes | 48c | 60.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 45c | 59.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 44c | 58.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 57.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked Yes | 52c | 57.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 44c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…32bebacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 25c | 54.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…c2ebbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 61c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 61c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 59c | 47.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 51c | 40.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 44c | 37.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 72c | 33.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 45c | 33.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd89d…d6b7backed No | 61c | 32.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48e9…0d07backed Yes | 62c | 32.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 45c | 29.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 45c | 26.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 41c | 25.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 25.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.