Mls · resolved market
San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbe5c8c4563883cce17ee975610638311c9a02c952f865f6d1f79e162cbf8536
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 1,585$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.45 | 3,018 | 43.6%1,316 W · 1,702 L | -28.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 62c | 1,333$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.8 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Over | 59c | 821.16$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 10c | 618.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 59c | 600$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 62c | 483.63$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.63 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 42c | 424.58$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.85 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 39c | 414.62$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 39c | 311.72$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.07 | 917 | 53.1%487 W · 430 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 5c | 303.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 873 | 54.6%477 W · 396 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 40c | 243.87$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 687 | 50.7%348 W · 339 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 56c | 219$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 44c | 219$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Under | 42c | 166.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 63c | 159.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 76c | 126.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 43c | 119.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 43c | 119.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 29c | 106.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 67c | 70.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 41c | 69.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 80c | 62.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 45c | 61.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 45c | 61.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 41c | 57.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 42c | 56.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 42c | 56.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 42c | 56.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 43c | 50.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 57c | 49.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 39c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 74c | 44.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 60c | 43.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Over | 54c | 36.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Over | 62c | 30.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 63c | 26.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 192 | 71.9%138 W · 54 L | +36.5wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Over | 62c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 60c | 18.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 61c | 16.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.