Mls · resolved market
San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ee1e6dc2b855cb7fb068ac1c39ac9b874fc0a9ebd55d223f5aeb06efdaa3c0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6204…0b06backed Over | 47c | 10,599$4,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,981.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 2,695$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.26 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 40c | 2,600$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.98 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 59c | 2,147$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.79 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 40c | 1,465$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 67c | 977.88$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.37 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 53c | 916.4$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.71 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 58c | 494.76$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.31 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 493.6$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.8 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 55c | 474.35$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.77 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 45c | 470.77$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 54c | 466.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.52 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 67c | 445$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.68 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce9…ced7backed Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 54c | 372.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.16 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 53c | 338.11$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.91 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 53c | 338.11$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.91 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 53c | 338.11$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.91 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 52c | 282.19$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 52c | 282.19$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 52c | 282.19$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 53c | 271.45$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.58 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 56c | 250.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.04 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 52c | 249.45$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 18c | 249$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 53c | 244.05$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Under | 53c | 239.91$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Under | 60c | 233.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 203.75$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.47 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 53c | 192.77$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 53c | 192.77$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 53c | 192.77$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 47c | 163.51$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.88 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 52c | 158.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 135.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 41c | 125$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…6d0dbacked Over | 56c | 108.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 61c | 107$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 53c | 95.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 53c | 95.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 53c | 95.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 38c | 93.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 44c | 86.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 37c | 66.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 52c | 65.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 53c | 60.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…26febacked Under | 70c | 52.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 54cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 37c | 50.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Under | 55c | 48.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 53c | 47.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 37c | 40.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…9abebacked Under | 75c | 33.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Under | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.