Mls · resolved market
Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bada5c2abf68ba40f7ac227ad0e5918a1aa24ddf2263bea3404cb0e69a229f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota United FCof San Diego FC, Minnesota United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed San Diego FC | 26c | 6,812$1,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,793.15 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Minnesota United FC | 71c | 2,375$1,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.17 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego FC | 29c | 1,229$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.12 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota United FC | 78c | 851.38$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.54 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Minnesota United FC | 70c | 588$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.85 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Minnesota United FC | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Minnesota United FC | 74c | 317.77$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…610cbacked Minnesota United FC | 71c | 274.87$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Minnesota United FC | 78c | 233.17$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Minnesota United FC | 79c | 233.02$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Minnesota United FC | 79c | 233.02$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Minnesota United FC | 79c | 232.29$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Minnesota United FC | 70c | 209$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Minnesota United FC | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Minnesota United FC | 77c | 176.16$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Minnesota United FC | 77c | 175.43$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Minnesota United FC | 71c | 154.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Minnesota United FC | 78c | 144.92$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed San Diego FC | 18c | 133.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Minnesota United FC | 78c | 131.29$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Minnesota United FC | 73c | 106.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Minnesota United FC | 73c | 106.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Minnesota United FC | 73c | 106.26$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Minnesota United FC | 72c | 106.16$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Minnesota United FC | 74c | 105.65$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Minnesota United FC | 78c | 99.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed San Diego FC | 20c | 96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Minnesota United FC | 68c | 91.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked San Diego FC | 32c | 91.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Minnesota United FC | 71c | 83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Minnesota United FC | 73c | 76.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Minnesota United FC | 74c | 67.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed San Diego FC | 24c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Minnesota United FC | 78c | 64.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked San Diego FC | 27c | 60.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed San Diego FC | 31c | 54.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Minnesota United FC | 72c | 46.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Minnesota United FC | 71c | 42.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed San Diego FC | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Minnesota United FC | 78c | 31.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Minnesota United FC | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Minnesota United FC | 71c | 15.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked Minnesota United FC | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Minnesota United FC | 79c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)this page
- San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Diego FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.