Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc040621c71849c7cab981231123475130a4f029e74f3b20ba134e47c4d42fea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf796…3ac5backed Over | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 881.14$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.93 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…f53cbacked Over | 49c | 485$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…2b54backed Under | 50c | 485$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 437.45$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.05 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aab…15c5backed Over | 50c | 399.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 47c | 322.4$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.64 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 48c | 193.48$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b2…94b8backed Over | 53c | 171.4$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 49c | 146.04$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…1363backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…b133backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa889…ebcdbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…3627backed Over | 50c | 85.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Over | 49c | 62.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed Under | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 49c | 52.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccfa…6be3backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…9ab8backed Over | 53c | 47.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…cbe8backed Over | 54c | 46.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 37.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…d6c6backed Under | 50c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f2…f86fbacked Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…747cbacked Under | 52c | 30.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…e797backed Over | 52c | 30.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…d36fbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Over | 53c | 27.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa1…bd9bbacked Under | 46c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)PARIVISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.