TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof Team Falcons, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$415,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$524,472

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $415,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 329 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed PARIVISION49c32,993$16,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,893.0754556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Falcons40c32,221$12,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,905.2355157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Team Falcons18c21,848$3,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,921.482321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-59.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Team Falcons43c12,539$5,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,361.338749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed PARIVISION61c12,251$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,751.3420156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Team Falcons52c10,745$5,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,595.4313045.4%59 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Falcons51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10036041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Team Falcons51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.9922954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed PARIVISION57c10,000$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,299.9842650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed PARIVISION64c9,631$6,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,494.7966662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION55c8,757$4,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,948.3996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba4a…9fa6backed PARIVISION56c8,233$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,633.223857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed PARIVISION57c7,993$4,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,437.16862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Team Falcons39c7,297$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.529636.5%35 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed PARIVISION58c6,613$3,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,747.9851751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Team Falcons51c5,760$2,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,937.6911547%54 W · 61 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Team Falcons40c5,633$2,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,253.2311839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked PARIVISION63c5,558$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,058.641242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Falcons51c5,555$2,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,833.0432854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked PARIVISION65c5,434$3,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,926.835168.6%35 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked PARIVISION60c5,011$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.0873841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons32c5,010$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.222,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed PARIVISION58c4,758$2,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,998.2522647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9505…57acbacked Team Falcons43c4,657$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked PARIVISION62c4,640$2,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,771.7853451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked PARIVISION50c4,385$2,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,192.3228748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed Team Falcons3c4,379$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.411043.6%48 W · 62 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9887…fe5cbacked Team Falcons42c4,100$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,723.9710453.8%56 W · 48 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…319ebacked PARIVISION49c4,082$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.622552%13 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1942…2c75backed Team Falcons55c3,941$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1505339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked PARIVISION49c3,719$1,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,896.616945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Falcons47c3,300$1,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,558.869644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked PARIVISION58c3,089$1,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300.0580256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons26c2,975$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.061,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked PARIVISION65c2,753$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.0889749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be4…1f20backed Team Falcons37c2,611$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x879b…fb7bbacked PARIVISION60c2,587$1,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.164168.3%28 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked PARIVISION59c2,514$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.641,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Team Falcons51c2,468$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.617357.5%42 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Team Falcons45c2,200$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.0622842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed PARIVISION46c2,160$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.488539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82da…da33backed Team Falcons39c2,019$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.3610743%46 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Team Falcons43c2,006$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.6113441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2969…d6e5backed Team Falcons50c2,004$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004131.7%13 W · 28 L-6.2wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-38.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Falcons44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88045139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ff…a491backed PARIVISION57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.992850%14 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Team Falcons51c1,977$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.1456542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf012…8a8ebacked Team Falcons51c1,953$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed PARIVISION59c1,911$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.251,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b8…61dcbacked PARIVISION48c1,800$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.9918065.6%118 W · 62 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Team Falcons40c1,700$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.85236.5%19 W · 33 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Falcons52c1,700$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.9956852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Falcons42c1,675$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.1333850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons38c1,632$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.562,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Falcons39c1,622$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62660646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed PARIVISION55c1,587$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.9250832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb110…21eabacked PARIVISION65c1,540$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.17550.7%38 W · 37 L-7.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Team Falcons36c1,534$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.8531245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Falcons42c1,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63023050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f2…4ca4backed PARIVISION67c1,496$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.281662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0905…d3f1backed Team Falcons39c1,449$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.742832.1%9 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Falcons2c1,380$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1937811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked PARIVISION59c1,355$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.12161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe438…e80cbacked Team Falcons1c1,300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.35910.2%6 W · 53 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-69.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff96…027cbacked Team Falcons39c1,293$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.871729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed PARIVISION47c1,284$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.726349.2%31 W · 32 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed Team Falcons39c1,254$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.8815051.3%77 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1391…6b3fbacked Team Falcons11c1,237$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.144231%13 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed Team Falcons52c1,211$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6283743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked PARIVISION80c1,202$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.3433867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Team Falcons43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50026453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons52c1,130$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.7480742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed PARIVISION50c1,100$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5475749.1%28 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Falcons44c1,100$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.6860552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c68…6746backed PARIVISION56c1,093$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.191861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+16.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons42c1,062$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.141,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Team Falcons39c1,060$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.4214943%64 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf796…3ac5backed PARIVISION72c1,042$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.13520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-72.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked PARIVISION60c1,000$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.8742145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Falcons52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed PARIVISION63c1,000$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.423650.4%119 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68bc…bf33backed Team Falcons5c904.19$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.221136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed PARIVISION50c874.75$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.3813456%75 W · 59 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team Falcons6c849.96$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.26132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed PARIVISION48c833.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.339852%51 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dde…9d98backed PARIVISION50c800.4$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.43438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Falcons41c781.5$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3221,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Falcons51c752.78$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.981,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d5a…c59ebacked Team Falcons43c750$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.56339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Team Falcons53c743$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.7913251.5%68 W · 64 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed PARIVISION55c721.75$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.7538653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Team Falcons34c700$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23828549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Falcons42c700$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.5677941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Team Falcons38c699.34$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.8737223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked PARIVISION61c671.08$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.6636654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed PARIVISION60c651.85$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.7443647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Team Falcons45c640.91$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.8720457.8%118 W · 86 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Team Falcons44c632$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.0833549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Team Falcons41c603.81$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.0616550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked PARIVISION58c600$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25236759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.