Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc1be03cc175c46ec005868b03ef6211c9a89eaadfd331155dc980b47338b571
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 1c | 6,260$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 223 | 23.3%52 W · 171 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,356$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.46 | 227 | 15%34 W · 193 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 8c | 4,784$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.5 | 1,061 | 10.7%113 W · 948 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 3,267$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.49 | 1,809 | 7.4%133 W · 1,676 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 371 | 10.8%40 W · 331 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 4c | 2,800$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.24 | 534 | 10.5%56 W · 478 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 3c | 2,526$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 128 | 37.5%48 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 2,363$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.8 | 903 | 17.1%154 W · 749 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 9c | 2,259$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.69 | 556 | 22.5%125 W · 431 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,970$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 579 | 29.7%172 W · 407 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 6c | 1,864$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 335 | 24.5%82 W · 253 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…06babacked Yes | 13c | 1,719$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.06 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,695$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 2,188 | 3.9%85 W · 2,103 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,367$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.91 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,322$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.34 | 659 | 21.5%142 W · 517 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 1,210$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 593 | 20.9%124 W · 469 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 7c | 1,206$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 898 | 18.8%169 W · 729 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 13c | 1,143$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.96 | 164 | 28%46 W · 118 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 5c | 1,047$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 509 | 19.3%98 W · 411 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 6c | 1,039$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 1,072 | 13.6%146 W · 926 L | +38.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 5c | 980$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 577 | 5.5%32 W · 545 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 5c | 895$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 589 | 22.1%130 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 8c | 814.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 232 | 22%51 W · 181 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 736.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1,219 | 8.7%106 W · 1,113 L | +32.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…8c74backed Yes | 14c | 728.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 8c | 623.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 430 | 19.3%83 W · 347 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 16c | 616.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 350 | 16%56 W · 294 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 16c | 500$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 340 | 21.5%73 W · 267 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 8c | 479$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 284 | 17.3%49 W · 235 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 12c | 432.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 471 | 21%99 W · 372 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…cf75backed Yes | 3c | 401.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…66c7backed Yes | 5c | 390$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…f79fbacked Yes | 14c | 380$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 12c | 286.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 470 | 23.4%110 W · 360 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 9c | 258.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 10c | 238.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 226.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 295 | 48.1%142 W · 153 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 8c | 222$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 171 | 16.4%28 W · 143 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593b…a941backed Yes | 10c | 130.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7b…1036backed Yes | 12c | 110.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 440 | 19.1%84 W · 356 L | +23.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…4010backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb816…9e90backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 419 | 22.9%96 W · 323 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…86f9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.