Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb9f5d778a6a9130829345b06c569ae68d50720e56389003795391b25a381aa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 0c | 7,155$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 642 | 39.1%251 W · 391 L | +48.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 9c | 4,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 542 | 17.2%93 W · 449 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 12c | 3,873$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.11 | 430 | 19.3%83 W · 347 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,549$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.14 | 286 | 23.4%67 W · 219 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 48c | 2,629$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.89 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 37c | 2,474$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.78 | 556 | 22.5%125 W · 431 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 14c | 1,880$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 164 | 28.7%47 W · 117 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 21c | 1,622$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.71 | 203 | 26.6%54 W · 149 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 44c | 1,566$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.51 | 549 | 23%126 W · 423 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,524$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.48 | 227 | 15%34 W · 193 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,363$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…06babacked Yes | 52c | 1,330$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.08 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 22c | 1,268$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.6 | 534 | 10.5%56 W · 478 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,240$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.71 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 56c | 1,235$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.74 | 128 | 37.5%48 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,095$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.24 | 1,061 | 10.7%113 W · 948 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 47c | 1,062$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.66 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 50c | 999.72$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.14 | 589 | 22.1%130 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 32c | 965.63$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.86 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 52c | 905.97$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.88 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 15c | 899.98$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 445 | 19.3%86 W · 359 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 22c | 804.84$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.44 | 284 | 17.3%49 W · 235 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 35c | 801.54$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.31 | 1,809 | 7.4%133 W · 1,676 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 44c | 787.99$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.79 | 340 | 21.5%73 W · 267 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 33c | 724.65$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.67 | 1,072 | 13.6%146 W · 926 L | +38.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 50c | 612.08$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.9 | 232 | 60.3%140 W · 92 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 54c | 555.54$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.27 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 44c | 547.21$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.61 | 181 | 34.3%62 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 65c | 501.47$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.6 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 159 | 11.9%19 W · 140 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 39c | 476.78$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.05 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…4c88backed Yes | 46c | 472.16$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 457.95$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.07 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 4c | 433$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 142 | 31.7%45 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 41c | 423.3$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.87 | 334 | 29.3%98 W · 236 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 16c | 420.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 371 | 10.8%40 W · 331 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…a2e6backed Yes | 42c | 402.68$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.08 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 62c | 400$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.87 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked No | 56c | 399.99$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 350 | 16%56 W · 294 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 5c | 375$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 440 | 19.1%84 W · 356 L | +23.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 50c | 360$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.26 | 593 | 20.9%124 W · 469 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 8c | 359.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 108 | 7.4%8 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…28b8backed Yes | 16c | 326$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 39c | 308.95$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed Yes | 15c | 293.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 43c | 274.89$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed No | 56c | 264.01$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.75 | 164 | 28%46 W · 118 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 48c | 248.59$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.11 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 39c | 222.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 232 | 22%51 W · 181 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 67c | 219.12$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 579 | 29.7%172 W · 407 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed No | 56c | 218.31$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 212.05$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.39 | 407 | 48.4%197 W · 210 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 26c | 210.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 251 | 22.3%56 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cf…2c9ebacked No | 59c | 210$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 39c | 200.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 419 | 22.9%96 W · 323 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 332 | 16.9%56 W · 276 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…eed3backed Yes | 24c | 179.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…59a5backed No | 56c | 178.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 49c | 176.67$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.83 | 898 | 18.8%169 W · 729 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 29c | 171.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…a51bbacked No | 30c | 169$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 45c | 161$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 57c | 160$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 152.53$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 523 | 28.3%148 W · 375 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 211 | 33.2%70 W · 141 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 63c | 142.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…cf75backed Yes | 48c | 138.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 45c | 138$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 509 | 19.3%98 W · 411 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 129.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 225 | 57.8%130 W · 95 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 45c | 129.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…d09cbacked Yes | 65c | 123.05$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce92…6a2dbacked Yes | 65c | 120.77$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…6798backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 215 | 57.2%123 W · 92 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 40c | 109.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…35c2backed Yes | 31c | 106.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes | 64c | 105.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 81 | 35.8%29 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 104.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c70…f5e1backed Yes | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…91dabacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…4010backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…a09dbacked Yes | 14c | 99.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 393 | 30.3%119 W · 274 L | -20.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 45c | 94.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 215 | 34.9%75 W · 140 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb810…8919backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 51c | 83.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 659 | 21.5%142 W · 517 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 41c | 83.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 295 | 48.1%142 W · 153 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…395bbacked Yes | 58c | 81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8040…c787backed No | 70c | 79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 76.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 2,589 | 13.1%340 W · 2,249 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 48c | 76.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…77a9backed Yes | 31c | 75.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x593b…a941backed Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…49b6backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa3…b7fcbacked Yes | 65c | 69.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.