Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77d70fc3071df6c6bb1ed25ea4700752f7e8785ae2e161542d0cb8a3750d9183
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 2c | 5,960$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 534 | 10.5%56 W · 478 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 5c | 5,472$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.37 | 142 | 31.7%45 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,494$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.87 | 659 | 21.5%142 W · 517 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 1c | 2,476$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 197 | 4.1%8 W · 189 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +211.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 350 | 16%56 W · 294 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe122…0b62backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,604$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 463 | 8.2%38 W · 425 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,219 | 8.7%106 W · 1,113 L | +32.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,112$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.43 | 191 | 18.3%35 W · 156 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 7c | 1,110$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 813 | 11.1%90 W · 723 L | +29.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…a2e6backed Yes | 3c | 946.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 4c | 912.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 227 | 15%34 W · 193 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 2c | 805.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 164 | 28%46 W · 118 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 8c | 751.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 5c | 719.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 1,072 | 13.6%146 W · 926 L | +38.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 5c | 506$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 3c | 401.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 577 | 5.5%32 W · 545 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 339.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 2,589 | 13.1%340 W · 2,249 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 21c | 329.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 4c | 279.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 593 | 20.9%124 W · 469 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…e64fbacked Yes | 5c | 221.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 100 | 27%27 W · 73 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cf…2c9ebacked Yes | 21c | 210$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97be…4ec9backed Yes | 7c | 202.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 215 | 22.8%49 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd020…2d96backed Yes | 14c | 170.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed Yes | 14c | 144.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 18c | 143$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 304 | 27%82 W · 222 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…1e60backed Yes | 15c | 129.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 61.9%70 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c7…0b56backed Yes | 15c | 126.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 14c | 123$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 430 | 19.3%83 W · 347 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 15c | 114.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…86f9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Yes | 22c | 99.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 16c | 81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 359 | 24.2%87 W · 272 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 19c | 80.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 335 | 24.5%82 W · 253 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…465dbacked Yes | 18c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 80c | 54.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 354 | 25.7%91 W · 263 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.