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Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$167,510
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$181,840

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,510 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No0c22,980$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1164239.1%251 W · 391 L+48.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No16c9,738$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.0643019.3%83 W · 347 L-19.5wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No29c8,418$2,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,441.3328623.4%67 W · 219 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes57c4,513$2,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,918.5871416.7%119 W · 595 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No51c3,636$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.3917640.3%71 W · 105 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5285…1cc5backed No70c3,535$2,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,485.292924.1%7 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes42c2,516$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.915227.6%42 W · 110 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed Yes71c2,244$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.6511757.3%67 W · 50 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes65c2,009$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.5212837.5%48 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked No55c2,003$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10015337.3%57 W · 96 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes58c1,921$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.355622.5%125 W · 431 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No42c1,799$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.065614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No53c1,776$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.6816044.4%71 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No15c1,666$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.7221348.4%103 W · 110 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes28c1,427$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.758922.1%130 W · 459 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes34c1,379$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.3814231.7%45 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes28c1,378$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.541216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes37c1,362$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.1442030.7%129 W · 291 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No55c1,258$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.8316656%93 W · 73 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes75c1,050$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.1710542.9%45 W · 60 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-32.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes34c1,030$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.88135.8%29 W · 52 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes30c1,023$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.9653410.5%56 W · 478 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No33c943.24$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.1840748.4%197 W · 210 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes37c896.44$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.2810225.5%26 W · 76 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No62c895.41$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.9223260.3%140 W · 92 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e7f…8c3cbacked No66c842.85$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.285115.7%8 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes43c803.96$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.7210736.4%39 W · 68 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd16…901ebacked Yes76c777.27$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes42c776.99$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.0334021.5%73 W · 267 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes45c751.31$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.3822715%34 W · 193 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes36c722.76$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.772,58913.1%340 W · 2,249 L+4.5wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x138d…b23ebacked No4c674.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed No46c648.2$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.9415748.4%76 W · 81 L+15.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked Yes47c607.12$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.1410730.8%33 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x408f…8c91backed Yes57c585.88$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.93757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes32c569.47$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.728028.8%23 W · 57 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No60c557.41$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.112951.9%67 W · 62 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes45c553.39$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.465921.5%142 W · 517 L+2.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No63c553.28$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.381,06110.7%113 W · 948 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes20c532.98$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.414619.6%9 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4363…c153backed Yes71c510.22$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.07560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…5762backed Yes41c507.81$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.216750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ca9…a2e6backed Yes44c506.68$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.152725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb816…9e90backed Yes25c500$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3756731.3%21 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+62.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40020631.1%64 W · 142 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+21.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe122…0b62backed Yes30c500$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3501216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-61.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c01…3cd8backed Yes29c430$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick17cpaid+330.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc011…0a62backed No46c423.07$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.510643.4%46 W · 60 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes35c420$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.61,07213.6%146 W · 926 L+38.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No44c409.97$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.461,8097.4%133 W · 1,676 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No59c400$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2369943.4%43 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b34…a646backed Yes29c390.69$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.911650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4964…4fddbacked Yes77c390.3$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.994957.1%28 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No48c389.07$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.6190317.1%154 W · 749 L+0.7wins0.00per pick17cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes45c370.34$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.3230427%82 W · 222 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes33c353.46$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.2859320.9%124 W · 469 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes24c353$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.234527.8%96 W · 249 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf77…1488backed No68c343.3$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.284719.1%9 W · 38 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-48%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No59c330.54$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.825058%29 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed No19c319.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.216512.7%21 W · 144 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes29c310.85$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.8525122.3%56 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No59c299.78$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.878944.9%40 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No62c297.54$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.8210155.4%56 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xedc1…0a06backed Yes69c289.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.863250%16 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No22c280$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.622557.8%130 W · 95 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc959…c37fbacked Yes50c261.14$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.145024%12 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-41.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes39c256.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.894818.8%9 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-48.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No61c252.21$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.1157929.7%172 W · 407 L+2.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes28c243.04$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.0616428%46 W · 118 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27bf…319bbacked Yes40c232.45$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.453531.4%11 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes31c226.83$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.5889818.8%169 W · 729 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes65c226.77$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2722442.4%95 W · 129 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58d3…1293backed Yes71c225.35$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c70…f5e1backed Yes52c218.07$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.03933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes47c212.14$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.484632.6%15 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6cf…2c9ebacked Yes40c210$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.561250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes68c200$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659632.3%31 W · 65 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-45.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7de…537abacked Yes25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1505411.1%6 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+75.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked No68c200$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13521522.8%49 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.433216.9%56 W · 276 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb19…e061backed Yes49c200$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1061070%7 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick40cpaid+39.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes53c200$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2441922.9%96 W · 323 L-0.8wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No61c199.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2935016%56 W · 294 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-58.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4645…59babacked No65c199.98$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.994445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb810…8919backed Yes54c186.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.334628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed No37c185.2$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4422828.1%64 W · 164 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed No42c172.5$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.933524.5%82 W · 253 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bd4…d241backed No66c172.11$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.591553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-19.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8958…656dbacked No48c170$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.451770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa402…a51bbacked No30c169$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.71533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3758…5c70backed Yes44c161.51$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.834353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes42c158.7$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.1633429.3%98 W · 236 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No10c158$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.83863.2%24 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Yes78c153.71$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.828646.5%40 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes52c150$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.521133.2%70 W · 141 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No42c144.52$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0412458.1%72 W · 52 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd76d…9457backed Yes70c142.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.983138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1ca…d09cbacked Yes14c142.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.862339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.