Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f7c79f736e48441c69a1fa5496c0e1b9d1b56fd28c7def5724b68d61ebd1299
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $167,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 0c | 22,980$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 642 | 39.1%251 W · 391 L | +48.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 16c | 9,738$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.06 | 430 | 19.3%83 W · 347 L | -19.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 29c | 8,418$2,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,441.33 | 286 | 23.4%67 W · 219 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 57c | 4,513$2,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.58 | 714 | 16.7%119 W · 595 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 51c | 3,636$1,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,859.39 | 176 | 40.3%71 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…1cc5backed No | 70c | 3,535$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,485.29 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 42c | 2,516$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.9 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 71c | 2,244$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.65 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 65c | 2,009$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.52 | 128 | 37.5%48 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 55c | 2,003$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 58c | 1,921$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.3 | 556 | 22.5%125 W · 431 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 42c | 1,799$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.06 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 53c | 1,776$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.68 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 1,666$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.72 | 213 | 48.4%103 W · 110 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,427$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.7 | 589 | 22.1%130 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 34c | 1,379$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.38 | 142 | 31.7%45 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,378$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.54 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 37c | 1,362$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.14 | 420 | 30.7%129 W · 291 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 55c | 1,258$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.83 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 75c | 1,050$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.17 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f5…c7c6backed Yes | 34c | 1,030$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.8 | 81 | 35.8%29 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 30c | 1,023$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.96 | 534 | 10.5%56 W · 478 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 943.24$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.18 | 407 | 48.4%197 W · 210 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…0e01backed Yes | 37c | 896.44$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.28 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 62c | 895.41$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.92 | 232 | 60.3%140 W · 92 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…8c3cbacked No | 66c | 842.85$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.28 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 43c | 803.96$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.72 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…901ebacked Yes | 76c | 777.27$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 42c | 776.99$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.03 | 340 | 21.5%73 W · 267 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 45c | 751.31$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.38 | 227 | 15%34 W · 193 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 722.76$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.77 | 2,589 | 13.1%340 W · 2,249 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…b23ebacked No | 4c | 674.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 46c | 648.2$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.94 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 47c | 607.12$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.14 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…8c91backed Yes | 57c | 585.88$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 32c | 569.47$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.72 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 60c | 557.41$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.1 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 45c | 553.39$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.4 | 659 | 21.5%142 W · 517 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 63c | 553.28$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.38 | 1,061 | 10.7%113 W · 948 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 20c | 532.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.41 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4363…c153backed Yes | 71c | 510.22$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 41c | 507.81$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.21 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…a2e6backed Yes | 44c | 506.68$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.15 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb816…9e90backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe122…0b62backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c01…3cd8backed Yes | 29c | 430$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 17cpaid | +330.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 46c | 423.07$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 35c | 420$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.6 | 1,072 | 13.6%146 W · 926 L | +38.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 44c | 409.97$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.46 | 1,809 | 7.4%133 W · 1,676 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…a646backed Yes | 29c | 390.69$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.91 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4fddbacked Yes | 77c | 390.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 48c | 389.07$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.61 | 903 | 17.1%154 W · 749 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 45c | 370.34$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.32 | 304 | 27%82 W · 222 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 33c | 353.46$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.28 | 593 | 20.9%124 W · 469 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 24c | 353$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.2 | 345 | 27.8%96 W · 249 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf77…1488backed No | 68c | 343.3$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.28 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 59c | 330.54$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.82 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…f859backed No | 19c | 319.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 165 | 12.7%21 W · 144 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 29c | 310.85$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.85 | 251 | 22.3%56 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 59c | 299.78$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.87 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 297.54$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.82 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed Yes | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 22c | 280$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 225 | 57.8%130 W · 95 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 50c | 261.14$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.14 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 39c | 256.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.89 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 61c | 252.21$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.11 | 579 | 29.7%172 W · 407 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 28c | 243.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.06 | 164 | 28%46 W · 118 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 40c | 232.45$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 31c | 226.83$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.58 | 898 | 18.8%169 W · 729 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 65c | 226.77$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 224 | 42.4%95 W · 129 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…1293backed Yes | 71c | 225.35$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c70…f5e1backed Yes | 52c | 218.07$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 47c | 212.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cf…2c9ebacked Yes | 40c | 210$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked No | 68c | 200$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 215 | 22.8%49 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 332 | 16.9%56 W · 276 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…e061backed Yes | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 53c | 200$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 419 | 22.9%96 W · 323 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked No | 61c | 199.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.29 | 350 | 16%56 W · 294 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…59babacked No | 65c | 199.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb810…8919backed Yes | 54c | 186.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed No | 37c | 185.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 228 | 28.1%64 W · 164 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 42c | 172.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 335 | 24.5%82 W · 253 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd4…d241backed No | 66c | 172.11$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 48c | 170$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…a51bbacked No | 30c | 169$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3758…5c70backed Yes | 44c | 161.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.83 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 42c | 158.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 334 | 29.3%98 W · 236 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 10c | 158$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 78c | 153.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 52c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 211 | 33.2%70 W · 141 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 42c | 144.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…9457backed Yes | 70c | 142.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…d09cbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.