Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc3177dd891d2818b02fafa53a00f1d0f46b1ea2d4c5469515a9a17c19638e40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 6,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked No | 13c | 579$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 46c | 451.33$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.92 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 408.23$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 70c | 298.34$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 250.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 20c | 196.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 45c | 167.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 166.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 72c | 143.49$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 134.42$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed No | 21c | 132.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 80c | 123.62$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.65 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 9c | 116.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 27c | 112.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 28c | 112.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 47c | 100.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 56c | 91.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 75c | 91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 17c | 88.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 79.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 18c | 73.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes | 26c | 72.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 62.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…4493backed No | 52c | 62.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 45c | 55.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 41c | 54.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 19c | 54.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 54.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 48c | 51.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 32c | 51.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 47.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 29c | 46.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…1bb0backed Yes | 45c | 42.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…aee8backed Yes | 37c | 38.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 51c | 37.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 50c | 36.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd9…055dbacked No | 56c | 34.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 42c | 31.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 55c | 28.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 59c | 26.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked Yes | 63c | 24.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 73c | 23.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 51c | 23.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 21.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 51c | 20.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 77c | 20.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed No | 56c | 19.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.