MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc3eb0b74e4ad3de3f36ae46ca9ec83ad6e559358fbefa5f47a9b406bd423336
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 9,200$4,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,875.67 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 47c | 7,494$3,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,971.85 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 47c | 7,000$3,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,714.68 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 33c | 4,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.97 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 54c | 2,612$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.71 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 56c | 1,609$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.48 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 63c | 931.24$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.56 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 63c | 702.04$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.12 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 37c | 532.95$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.6 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 523.48$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.37 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 487.99$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.51 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 444.99$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 53c | 430.63$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.23 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Over | 54c | 405.16$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.79 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 20c | 326.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Under | 79c | 314.9$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 133 | 61.7%82 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 62c | 309.87$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.26 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 21c | 255.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 54c | 230.89$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 13c | 221.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 45c | 173.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 49c | 160.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 53c | 152.75$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 14c | 136.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6c…0b46backed Over | 53c | 124$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 80c | 122.93$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Over | 54c | 108.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 62c | 77.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 57c | 68.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Under | 80c | 50.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5564…b806backed Over | 54c | 50.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 54c | 48.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 53c | 42.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 79c | 41.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 79c | 41.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 79c | 41.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Under | 80c | 41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 80c | 40.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 80c | 40.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 80c | 40.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 80c | 40.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Under | 80c | 40.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 80c | 40.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 80c | 40.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 80c | 40.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 80c | 40.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 80c | 40.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 80c | 40.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 80c | 40.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 80c | 40.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 80c | 40.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 80c | 40.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 54c | 38.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Under | 48c | 36.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over | 53c | 29.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1b25backed Over | 54c | 29.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 57c | 25.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 54c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 46c | 23.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 80c | 20.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 80c | 20.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Over | 53c | 20.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…c2d6backed Over | 54c | 19.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 80c | 15.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee BrewersWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.