MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb091d4b27f7fc5a2c204348e403905b83e279028f63ab7cd4af42abda39c1c87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 4,749$2,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042.24 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 3,601$2,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.34 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 2,640$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.85 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 1,384$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.83 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 1,353$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.93 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 900$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 800.2$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.94 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 701.07$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.47 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 15c | 415.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1880…a421backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 410.72$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.72 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 399.98$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 300.05$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.19 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 238.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.34 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 196.37$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 196$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 171.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 129.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 122.69$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 117.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 115.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 114.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Washington Nationals | 59c | 97.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 94.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1b25backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 88.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 73.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 70.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 23c | 67.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 65.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6edd…a867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 65.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 58.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 58.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 57.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 54.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 49.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 49.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 46.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 39.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 35.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 280 | 53.9%151 W · 129 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439d…3e06backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 33.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 30.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 23.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 19.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Washington Nationals | 75c | 17.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee BrewersWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.