South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc3f7a26d68823cfee5ec3c55dd17b3fe98c32c36ae35d8ae64c74bb98e32a64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 4c | 3,437$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 20c | 1,193$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.35 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 80c | 1,098$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.65 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…98b3backed Over | 22c | 1,080$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 5c | 1,029$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 80c | 1,025$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.09 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Under | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 20c | 629.73$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.29 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 22c | 436.85$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over | 21c | 399.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 21c | 229.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 74c | 196.88$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Over | 22c | 171.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 80c | 145.82$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 23c | 136.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 20c | 135.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 20c | 127.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 16c | 106.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 26c | 98.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 20c | 85.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 20c | 85.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 79c | 79.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 22c | 68.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c75…45febacked Over | 21c | 57.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 19c | 53.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 20c | 53.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…122dbacked Under | 80c | 30.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…5ec1backed Under | 74c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3648…7c1cbacked Under | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0055…b43bbacked Under | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 78c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: O/U 4.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: O/U 2.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CS Cristal (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: CS Cristal (-2.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)CS Cristal won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)CS Cristal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.