South American Leagues · resolved market
SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab37df0eb18f4a7a846798da440166624bec2d080692ea30f3523c0aa80f87df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbed3…2811backed Under | 76c | 9,730$7,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,338.11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 4,742$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.94 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 70c | 2,749$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.2 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 39c | 2,429$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.54 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 1,460$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.95 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 39c | 1,236$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.7 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under | 58c | 843.66$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.33 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 19c | 823.59$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.51 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Under | 60c | 655$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 66c | 636.6$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.89 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 632.14$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.36 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 26c | 628.23$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.81 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…98b3backed Over | 40c | 602.5$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 29c | 486.43$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.89 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 48c | 475$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 41c | 466.8$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.03 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 54c | 278.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.7 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over | 36c | 272.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.47 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 61c | 249.51$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.31 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 58c | 233$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.97 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 26c | 188.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed Under | 62c | 158.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…f5bfbacked Under | 68c | 144.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 49c | 138.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 65c | 125.78$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 80c | 124.21$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fa…83f9backed Under | 54c | 122.18$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53f2…defdbacked Under | 48c | 120.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 38c | 112.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Over | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 30c | 96.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 29c | 93.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Over | 56c | 87.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 47c | 83.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 25c | 76.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 52c | 76.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…2e9dbacked Under | 75c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 31c | 61.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e2…658bbacked Under | 74c | 53.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 37c | 51.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 46c | 51.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 55c | 51.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed Over | 39c | 48.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 36c | 48.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Over | 44c | 45.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 62c | 39.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c26…1694backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 61c | 37.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 61c | 36.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 40c | 34.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 168 | 45.2%76 W · 92 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 40c | 32.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c0…2489backed Under | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Under | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…2137backed Under | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3e…8b7cbacked Over | 39c | 29.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…262ebacked Over | 43c | 27.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 46c | 23.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…bd88backed Under | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 45c | 23.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 49c | 22.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Under | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 71c | 14.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: O/U 3.5this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: O/U 2.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CS Cristal (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: CS Cristal (-2.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)CS Cristal won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)CS Cristal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.