South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97c7f0ec8ee0cb394971e7b6548fb545fe271fb72bf711ba340c8ecc802615d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CS Cristalof SE Palmeiras, CS Cristal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed SE Palmeiras | 36c | 22,986$8,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,274.89 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed CS Cristal | 64c | 7,827$5,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,817.79 | 248 | 55.2%137 W · 111 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked SE Palmeiras | 41c | 7,174$2,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,960.61 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked CS Cristal | 58c | 4,505$2,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.43 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked SE Palmeiras | 40c | 2,997$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.72 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked CS Cristal | 64c | 2,935$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.67 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed CS Cristal | 64c | 2,935$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.67 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CS Cristal | 66c | 1,863$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.92 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed CS Cristal | 64c | 1,712$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.39 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed CS Cristal | 60c | 1,364$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.64 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed SE Palmeiras | 27c | 1,184$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.45 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed CS Cristal | 60c | 1,076$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.22 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed CS Cristal | 64c | 978.4$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.22 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed CS Cristal | 64c | 782.72$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.78 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked SE Palmeiras | 42c | 678.66$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.73 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed CS Cristal | 64c | 489.2$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.11 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed CS Cristal | 64c | 489.2$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.11 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked CS Cristal | 64c | 440.28$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.5 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed CS Cristal | 64c | 437.72$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.58 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked CS Cristal | 60c | 433.52$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.41 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed CS Cristal | 71c | 416.02$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.26 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed CS Cristal | 64c | 391.36$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.89 | 213 | 58.7%125 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked CS Cristal | 64c | 391.36$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.89 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed CS Cristal | 60c | 354.65$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.86 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed CS Cristal | 60c | 354.65$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.86 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked CS Cristal | 60c | 324.15$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.66 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed CS Cristal | 64c | 293.52$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed CS Cristal | 64c | 293.52$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed CS Cristal | 60c | 248.88$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked CS Cristal | 64c | 244.6$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked CS Cristal | 64c | 244.6$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 203 | 60.6%123 W · 80 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed CS Cristal | 58c | 218.15$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed CS Cristal | 63c | 214.71$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed CS Cristal | 63c | 212.79$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked CS Cristal | 63c | 212.32$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked CS Cristal | 64c | 200.57$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed CS Cristal | 64c | 195.68$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked CS Cristal | 64c | 195.68$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked CS Cristal | 61c | 173.44$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…5bbfbacked SE Palmeiras | 42c | 166.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed CS Cristal | 64c | 146.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed CS Cristal | 60c | 105.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed SE Palmeiras | 35c | 105.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed CS Cristal | 60c | 103.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed CS Cristal | 63c | 92.7$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed CS Cristal | 63c | 89.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…2e9dbacked CS Cristal | 60c | 80.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…7e1dbacked CS Cristal | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed CS Cristal | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75b…ed74backed CS Cristal | 60c | 62.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed CS Cristal | 64c | 58.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed CS Cristal | 70c | 56.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00d…cd39backed SE Palmeiras | 22c | 55.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed SE Palmeiras | 39c | 53.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed CS Cristal | 64c | 48.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked SE Palmeiras | 37c | 46.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3db…c173backed SE Palmeiras | 41c | 46.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed CS Cristal | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…122dbacked CS Cristal | 60c | 40.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked CS Cristal | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed CS Cristal | 63c | 31.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 112 | 62.5%70 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed SE Palmeiras | 37c | 28.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed CS Cristal | 61c | 25.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +7.8wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked CS Cristal | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked CS Cristal | 64c | 24.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked CS Cristal | 60c | 23.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked CS Cristal | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed CS Cristal | 64c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed CS Cristal | 62c | 17.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed CS Cristal | 65c | 15.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: O/U 2.5Over won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: O/U 3.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CS Cristal (-1.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: CS Cristal (-2.5)SE Palmeiras won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)CS Cristal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.