MLB · resolved market
Blue Jays vs. Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc468a6a48a16d23cff8cdf4a52d1f7a618a55f3e9365f84e0dc21b05090d053
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Jaysof Blue Jays, Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0cd…3be3backed Mariners | 62c | 53,808$33,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,360.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c3…fb55backed Blue Jays | 38c | 53,808$20,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,360.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…77bfbacked Blue Jays | 38c | 7,774$2,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,827.84 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Mariners | 62c | 5,764$3,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,573.66 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Mariners | 62c | 1,603$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.86 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Blue Jays | 39c | 1,216$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.85 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Mariners | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Blue Jays | 42c | 789.06$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mariners | 63c | 697.46$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.03 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Mariners | 49c | 690$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.1 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mariners | 62c | 631.67$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.67 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…e8cbbacked Mariners | 2c | 630$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Blue Jays | 39c | 498.01$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.78 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Blue Jays | 64c | 316.54$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.38 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Mariners | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Mariners | 63c | 250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Mariners | 64c | 172.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.43 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mariners | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mariners | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Blue Jays | 51c | 140$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…eb07backed Blue Jays | 48c | 126$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Mariners | 63c | 114.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Mariners | 63c | 107.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Mariners | 64c | 100.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed Mariners | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Mariners | 64c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Blue Jays | 51c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Blue Jays | 37c | 81.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…9bd4backed Blue Jays | 79c | 80.03$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd065…93e8backed Mariners | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Blue Jays | 38c | 67.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5b…0711backed Mariners | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Blue Jays | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ab…7d33backed Blue Jays | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Mariners | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mariners | 61c | 35.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Mariners | 64c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd0…6995backed Mariners | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Mariners | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Blue Jays | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…66f5backed Blue Jays | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c8…5e0dbacked Mariners | 63c | 26.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x586c…c8fdbacked Blue Jays | 38c | 26.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…9b91backed Mariners | 64c | 26.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Blue Jays | 62c | 25.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Mariners | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4137…288ebacked Mariners | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…4d72backed Mariners | 63c | 20.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Blue Jays | 53c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Mariners | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5506…3091backed Mariners | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0dae…0240backed Mariners | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.