Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc4e26e1fa650211d45c41483c2aa1f1892ae99c0438666924ba8678ed9e3c4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3118…ee98backed No | 1c | 10,765$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…d9dabacked No | 49c | 8,724$4,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,281.64 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 1c | 6,805$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x731a…f859backed No | 0c | 4,655$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 69c | 4,131$2,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.45 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 42c | 2,109$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.99 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 16c | 1,755$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.92 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 49c | 1,393$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.52 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 58c | 1,310$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.75 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 2c | 1,230$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…8217backed No | 16c | 1,165$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…8665backed No | 1c | 1,126$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 3c | 894.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 3c | 839.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 26c | 824.58$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.63 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9471…eb8abacked No | 3c | 769.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…0b9cbacked Yes | 37c | 767.13$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.63 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 49c | 589.32$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.2 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 4c | 553$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed No | 9c | 477.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 74c | 460.13$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.45 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 455.91$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…ee13backed No | 63c | 399.73$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 28c | 355.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.65 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 63c | 342.89$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.15 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 9c | 300.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 20c | 293.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 287.62$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 44c | 285.91$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.29 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes | 65c | 249.48$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.28 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 9c | 237.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 49c | 231.48$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.21 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2f…cd71backed No | 8c | 222.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 35c | 197$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes | 59c | 179$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…27acbacked No | 15c | 170$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 47c | 168.45$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 12c | 156.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 154.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…8e24backed No | 49c | 153.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 39c | 152.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 46c | 151.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4dc7backed Yes | 66c | 146.37$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…eba6backed No | 9c | 141.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +158.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 69c | 140.43$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 54c | 140.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…bfe7backed No | 34c | 135.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 45c | 133.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 46c | 132.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 126.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 125.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…b7e0backed No | 41c | 124.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…8bf1backed No | 30c | 114.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 43c | 111.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b5…7ca1backed No | 62c | 103.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…6bd0backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 44c | 92.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 15c | 77.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 72.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed No | 25c | 72.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 54c | 70.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 43c | 69.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 33c | 67.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…89f5backed Yes | 50c | 66.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…2108backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…ccb4backed No | 67c | 57.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 45c | 54.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 36c | 51.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf462…2cd4backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef3…519dbacked No | 29c | 49.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0127…e653backed Yes | 49c | 48.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 27c | 47.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 36c | 47.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 49c | 44.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 43.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 52c | 42.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 35c | 42.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae49…0f14backed Yes | 50c | 40.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 50c | 38.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…db0abacked Yes | 56c | 36.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1508…c5dfbacked Yes | 47c | 33.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…be25backed No | 58c | 33.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 62c | 31.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8c…ecaebacked No | 62c | 31.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 47c | 30.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…fdbbbacked Yes | 36c | 29.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe30…24d7backed Yes | 66c | 29.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4120…0291backed No | 63c | 28.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…02c3backed Yes | 68c | 28.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.