Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc8af1602462c43aaf725ffcd676a488802581126ccc67dc35647c92cc1b63bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x731a…f859backed Yes | 0c | 8,732$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…ddf5backed Yes | 0c | 5,055$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9471…eb8abacked Yes | 2c | 2,395$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,209$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 3c | 2,180$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeda…e636backed Yes | 17c | 2,161$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.91 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 7c | 959.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes | 5c | 950$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 23c | 919.22$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.93 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 2c | 838.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 2c | 676.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 8c | 635.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 456.18$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 15c | 451.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 4c | 447.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 406.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…0b9cbacked Yes | 27c | 391.09$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 16c | 371.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 4c | 317.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 27c | 307.1$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 33c | 296.68$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 75c | 292.39$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 6c | 265.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x836f…6bd0backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…0737backed Yes | 10c | 189.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 45c | 188.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d0…6fb4backed Yes | 8c | 169.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 157.08$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 121.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 107.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 17c | 105.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb5…49f6backed Yes | 36c | 104.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988a…9e6fbacked Yes | 20c | 99.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 20c | 93.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked No | 72c | 92.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 14c | 82.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 24c | 79.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 72c | 73.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…4dc9backed Yes | 16c | 68.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…7760backed Yes | 27c | 67.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…d9dabacked Yes | 20c | 66.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 16c | 64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 61.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…2108backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…4af7backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed No | 79c | 58.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87e…9921backed Yes | 28c | 56.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4f…5aa2backed Yes | 44c | 45.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 40c | 42.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…c728backed No | 79c | 39.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 70c | 34.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…27acbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…d278backed Yes | 55c | 29.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 72c | 28.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2d…f01abacked No | 71c | 27.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ff…8cfebacked No | 71c | 26.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…36d1backed No | 74c | 25.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 44c | 24.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 68c | 23.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 73c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c44…115fbacked No | 74c | 20.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 19.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 65c | 19.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 80c | 17.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x940c…4ad4backed No | 75c | 14.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf63…4105backed No | 71c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.