Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88982d8d3599ffbd836416e143172ce269ac0ef319a51b7bafd7531ef8a02624
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $240,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 1c | 14,126$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…8e24backed Yes | 2c | 12,041$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe46…cb39backed Yes | 1c | 11,381$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95c…ce24backed Yes | 0c | 7,925$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x731a…f859backed Yes | 0c | 7,503$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 0c | 4,271$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3f…3b5abacked Yes | 0c | 4,150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585a…26ecbacked Yes | 0c | 2,659$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…89f5backed Yes | 1c | 2,045$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,026$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,863$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.18 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 12c | 1,704$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 1,654$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd393…0744backed Yes | 2c | 1,305$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a0…39f2backed Yes | 1c | 999.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 20c | 951.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.85 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 7c | 665.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 23c | 497.26$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.33 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 3c | 323.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1843…affabacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 17c | 228.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 24c | 222.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 19c | 219.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 20c | 193.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 20c | 162.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 78c | 100.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc650…1ef4backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 20c | 96.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…fa28backed Yes | 21c | 76.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 26c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c15…6eadbacked Yes | 25c | 57.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf582…0a68backed Yes | 21c | 55.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 54.94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0093…be88backed No | 79c | 49.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 29c | 47.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 80c | 31.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 80c | 31.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…c728backed No | 79c | 31.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…f426backed No | 79c | 28.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed No | 77c | 25.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…abe7backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.