Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc59c2d6d839dbab8af275c78d4a3b683d02d7c39b564170ec8bfd4ea2c4d580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 0c | 4,539$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 9c | 1,170$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.97 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 1c | 1,081$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 47c | 1,042$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.05 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 765.06$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 19c | 752.34$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.73 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 18c | 677.41$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed Yes | 79c | 548.78$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.94 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 74c | 350$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 343$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 20c | 339.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.87 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 288.53$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed Yes | 66c | 284.5$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.86 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 267$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 245.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 31c | 224.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.1 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 79c | 194.73$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.96 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 35c | 165.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 8c | 159.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.19 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…ed07backed Yes | 60c | 134.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 41c | 122.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 122.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 62c | 117.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…8902backed No | 36c | 115.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 12c | 109.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.55 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…83acbacked No | 15c | 107.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.23 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 55c | 88.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 75c | 88.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 23c | 81.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 19c | 78.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 35c | 78.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed No | 20c | 77.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 64c | 76.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 30c | 73.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 22c | 69.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 68c | 68.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 35c | 65.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 62c | 65.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 68c | 62.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 71c | 60.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked No | 22c | 59.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 52c | 55.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 38c | 53.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…d5f7backed Yes | 33c | 49.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 41c | 48.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 68c | 43.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 78c | 41.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 26c | 41.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 35c | 40.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf14a…86d2backed Yes | 71c | 34.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 70c | 33.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf319…6735backed Yes | 78c | 30.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd9…055dbacked No | 63c | 30.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 38c | 29.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 65c | 27.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddb…4b77backed No | 74c | 26.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 44c | 26.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…2958backed No | 66c | 24.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked No | 66c | 23.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…abe7backed No | 75c | 23.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…e3fabacked No | 63c | 20.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…93c7backed No | 70c | 20.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…b6bebacked No | 70c | 20.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed No | 68c | 20.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 20.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed Yes | 78c | 16.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C or higher on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.