Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x799e1a923170a64cd1e18ebda90fc0af23c6e0b561aa8bd6b0de3037d52ab7ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 0c | 46,692$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 1,359$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 71c | 838.37$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.3 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 55c | 763.79$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.67 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 15c | 639.02$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.31 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 62c | 624.52$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.75 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 43c | 465.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 7c | 461.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 433.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.37 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 8c | 412.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked No | 4c | 357.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…ed5bbacked No | 6c | 307$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…ed07backed Yes | 24c | 269.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 16c | 262.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 32c | 252$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Yes | 25c | 239.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.87 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 18c | 208$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 170$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 10c | 160.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 139.76$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 46c | 119.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 115.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 108.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…8902backed Yes | 40c | 105.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 101.64$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddb…4b77backed Yes | 44c | 99.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 16c | 96.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 49c | 96.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 15c | 95.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 56c | 90.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 89.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 49c | 86.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 31c | 74.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 73.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 68c | 73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…895ebacked Yes | 55c | 69.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 71c | 68.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d4…3a45backed Yes | 42c | 67.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…0775backed Yes | 33c | 66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 27c | 59.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 58.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 25c | 57.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 57.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…2bf6backed Yes | 34c | 54.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 38c | 54.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 50c | 54.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…7e47backed Yes | 55c | 52.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 80c | 51.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 44c | 50.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 51c | 49.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…070cbacked No | 25c | 46.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 75c | 46.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 43.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 67c | 41.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 41.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 33c | 41.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 31c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 37c | 37.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…8df9backed Yes | 36c | 37.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 39c | 35.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 35.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…114dbacked Yes | 56c | 34.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 76c | 33.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed No | 44c | 29.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…785ebacked No | 70c | 28.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 50c | 27.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 53c | 26.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 54c | 25.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked No | 61c | 25.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 55c | 25.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 21.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 68c | 18.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C or higher on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.