College Football · resolved market
James Madison vs. Liberty
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc6b61212319fa5f2faaaf0115026ae36615c543b9da899987bc2ed6eaebc42d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- James Madisonof James Madison, Liberty
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Liberty | 25c | 9,528$2,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,404.87 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked James Madison | 75c | 7,436$5,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.55 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked James Madison | 74c | 2,548$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.96 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed James Madison | 74c | 1,400$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Liberty | 25c | 1,203$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.75 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Liberty | 26c | 1,200$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Liberty | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked James Madison | 75c | 891.92$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.98 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed James Madison | 74c | 803.08$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.8 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Liberty | 25c | 748.92$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.23 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Liberty | 28c | 699.82$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.4 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Liberty | 29c | 690.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.77 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Liberty | 33c | 600$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Liberty | 2c | 548$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked James Madison | 73c | 468.03$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.37 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Liberty | 32c | 451.39$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.12 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked James Madison | 52c | 390$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed James Madison | 70c | 364.48$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.81 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked James Madison | 74c | 291.53$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked James Madison | 75c | 222.14$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Liberty | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Liberty | 24c | 199.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Liberty | 26c | 194.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Liberty | 43c | 179.29$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed James Madison | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked James Madison | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed James Madison | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Liberty | 25c | 143$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed James Madison | 74c | 123.59$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked James Madison | 62c | 107.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb019…3ecebacked Liberty | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac3…7981backed James Madison | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…1083backed James Madison | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ba…723fbacked Liberty | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed James Madison | 66c | 89.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Liberty | 41c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked James Madison | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked James Madison | 74c | 53.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed James Madison | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Liberty | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed James Madison | 75c | 42.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked James Madison | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed James Madison | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed James Madison | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…a2c2backed James Madison | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed James Madison | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4140…195fbacked James Madison | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked James Madison | 74c | 17.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc142…d24cbacked James Madison | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Madison vs. Libertythis page
- Spread: James Madison (-8.5)James Madison won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.