MLB · resolved market
Padres vs. Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccaeeb877a1f661ec91017787bde4a4c69a6b759227fe2edd020be69cb956996
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Padresof Padres, Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Yankees | 59c | 2,829$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.13 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Padres | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.95 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Padres | 45c | 2,190$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.64 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Padres | 42c | 1,890$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.27 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yankees | 58c | 1,803$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.74 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Yankees | 58c | 1,569$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.99 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Padres | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Yankees | 57c | 1,412$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.05 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Padres | 75c | 1,300$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Padres | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yankees | 61c | 873.18$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Padres | 12c | 866.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.3 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yankees | 58c | 765.14$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.46 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Padres | 43c | 581.4$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.4 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Padres | 41c | 575$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.25 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Padres | 41c | 493.95$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.43 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Yankees | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Padres | 7c | 300$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Yankees | 58c | 261.9$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Padres | 42c | 261.9$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.9 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Padres | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Padres | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Padres | 9c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.6 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…6c96backed Padres | 41c | 184.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Padres | 41c | 181.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Padres | 41c | 164.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.23 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Padres | 41c | 157$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.63 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Yankees | 19c | 105.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8a…8f1bbacked Padres | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Padres | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Yankees | 59c | 81.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Yankees | 24c | 63.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…f7d9backed Padres | 41c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba91…ccdbbacked Yankees | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…bde7backed Yankees | 76c | 52.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yankees | 58c | 50.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Yankees | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…3d66backed Padres | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Padres | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…be98backed Yankees | 75c | 40.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Padres | 42c | 35.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Yankees | 58c | 33.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Padres | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Yankees | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Yankees | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Padres | 44c | 24.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.