Tennis · resolved market
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcce1903d3fdef3d6108e91901d3fb8e0d6a2a78e5f84b750f900e854d94833fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 4.5of Over 4.5, Under 4.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x502e…5442backed Over 4.5 | 36c | 1,786$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 4.5 | 64c | 998.33$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.4 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 4.5 | 65c | 925.01$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.58 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Over 4.5 | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 486 | 37.7%183 W · 303 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ea…e966backed Over 4.5 | 41c | 101.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under 4.5 | 67c | 99.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over 4.5 | 33c | 98.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Under 4.5 | 69c | 66.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 364 | 64.3%234 W · 130 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Over 4.5 | 51c | 61.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…980abacked Under 4.5 | 49c | 61.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under 4.5 | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 834 | 47.5%396 W · 438 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under 4.5 | 58c | 42.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6b…5cd9backed Over 4.5 | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 4.5 | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over 4.5 | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 171 | 52.6%90 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Under 4.5 | 58c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Under 4.5 | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under 4.5 | 68c | 16.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 4.5this page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio CobolliFlavio Cobolli won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs CobolliAuger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)Cobolli won
- Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+2.5)Auger-Aliassime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.