Tennis · resolved market
Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b556eff0d99536cafe5847a95e6da0199f866782c0f42778b4afe809b6a729e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 59c | 4,269$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.21 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 42c | 3,552$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.03 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 41c | 2,274$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.29 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…8a0bbacked Over | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.38 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 34c | 1,373$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.94 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Under | 45c | 727.04$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.91 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 59c | 677.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.97 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 661.58$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.74 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Over | 57c | 528.07$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.07 | 544 | 50.6%275 W · 269 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Under | 57c | 494.99$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.15 | 546 | 34.4%188 W · 358 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 60c | 425.63$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.25 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…77eebacked Over | 57c | 422.81$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.81 | 819 | 33.1%271 W · 548 L | -30.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…f0bfbacked Over | 59c | 416.66$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.83 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d59…31dcbacked Over | 50c | 352.64$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…c619backed Over | 43c | 297.32$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.47 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 13c | 291.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 50c | 248.23$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.12 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 43c | 192.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.82 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e3bcbacked Over | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 40c | 169.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Over | 59c | 146.83$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Under | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e6…0896backed Over | 57c | 112.31$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…9248backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…1803backed Over | 59c | 83.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 43c | 82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…5805backed Over | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…4803backed Over | 57c | 68.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 42c | 53.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Under | 34c | 52.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 197 | 45.7%90 W · 107 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…f31dbacked Over | 59c | 42.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 171 | 52.6%90 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x372f…182abacked Over | 59c | 27.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 221 | 53.4%118 W · 103 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 38.5this page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio CobolliFlavio Cobolli won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs CobolliAuger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+1.5)Cobolli won
- Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Auger-Aliassime (+2.5)Auger-Aliassime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.