Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 145.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccead8c04862a346796670375f680394a2df1e2473d91f263e48cd64d22cf4de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe248…f293backed Over | 58c | 30,341$17,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,840.18 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 42c | 30,000$12,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,700 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 285 | 39.6%113 W · 172 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…5c6cbacked Over | 60c | 1,903$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.38 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Under | 41c | 900$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 40c | 697.81$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.12 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 43c | 637$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.91 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Over | 58c | 589.89$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.49 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 40c | 557.78$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.11 | 423 | 39.2%166 W · 257 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Under | 40c | 500.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.02 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.99 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Over | 59c | 379.18$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.38 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Under | 43c | 372.09$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 132 | 47%62 W · 70 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked Over | 58c | 330$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 60c | 285.05$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.02 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 39c | 256.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…c431backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 228.74$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 59c | 227.88$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.71 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 42c | 205$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 42c | 144.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 42c | 143.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 41c | 96.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Under | 43c | 93.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Over | 60c | 83.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 41c | 81.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 378 | 35.7%135 W · 243 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Over | 58c | 69.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 59.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 61c | 52.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 204 | 52.9%108 W · 96 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Under | 42c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 46.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Under | 41c | 41.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Under | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9d…1ba2backed Under | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 40c | 26.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bb…15eebacked Over | 59c | 25.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 57c | 24.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…036abacked Over | 61c | 24.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 53c | 21.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31fe…5ee4backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Over | 60c | 17.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 145.5this page
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan Wolverines won
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 147.5Over won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-1.5)Michigan Wolverines won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.