TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, Michigan State Spartans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,011
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,011 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0900…3e1dbacked Michigan State Spartans51c19,190$9,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,786.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a4c…9b1abacked Michigan Wolverines49c19,190$9,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,786.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Michigan State Spartans51c12,569$6,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,409.5735151.9%182 W · 169 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Michigan Wolverines49c5,167$2,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,635.092,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Michigan Wolverines52c3,726$1,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.5274051.5%381 W · 359 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Michigan Wolverines50c3,279$1,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,648.271,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e82…7670backed Michigan Wolverines49c2,051$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.0218650%93 W · 93 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Michigan Wolverines50c1,272$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.395127.5%14 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-52.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6238…0523backed Michigan State Spartans50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50016755.7%93 W · 74 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae8c…93cdbacked Michigan Wolverines49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51011347.8%54 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe584…e6e2backed Michigan Wolverines53c935.05$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.057047.1%33 W · 37 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Michigan State Spartans49c931.09$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.232,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9764…c40cbacked Michigan State Spartans48c750$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3605253.8%28 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Michigan State Spartans47c681.64$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.965,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Michigan State Spartans50c600.76$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.3835452.3%185 W · 169 L+17.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Michigan Wolverines50c500.04$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.841,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Michigan State Spartans46c442.39$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.51,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Michigan Wolverines54c420.46$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.391526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.25per pick51cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xda31…8e56backed Michigan State Spartans48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1928138.3%31 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Michigan Wolverines52c340.92$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.641,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8415…dfe1backed Michigan State Spartans50c227.79$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.628055%44 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Michigan Wolverines48c221.76$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.44,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbd5…e025backed Michigan Wolverines54c220.37$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.37742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b4…b5e8backed Michigan State Spartans48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Michigan State Spartans49c204.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013052.3%68 W · 62 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Michigan State Spartans50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10057448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Michigan Wolverines51c199.06$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5414151.1%72 W · 69 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Michigan State Spartans48c194.44$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.932652.8%172 W · 154 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Michigan Wolverines51c156.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.867452.7%39 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Michigan Wolverines52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.791,16255.2%641 W · 521 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan State Spartans50c118.81$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.414,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0bb…049fbacked Michigan State Spartans49c116.86$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.015752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c72…78edbacked Michigan Wolverines53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.343336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2442…0c2bbacked Michigan State Spartans57c88.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014051.4%72 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Michigan Wolverines51c82.1$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.451,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Michigan State Spartans47c78.23$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0966831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Michigan Wolverines53c74.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8612245.1%55 W · 67 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Michigan Wolverines49c71$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2165825.7%169 W · 489 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f2…1255backed Michigan Wolverines51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Michigan State Spartans48c51.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2523754.9%130 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Michigan Wolverines52c51.51$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5120452.9%108 W · 96 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Michigan State Spartans49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.510755.1%59 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234d…e8e1backed Michigan State Spartans48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked Michigan Wolverines52c48.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0822656.2%127 W · 99 L+14.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Michigan Wolverines52c47.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7834947.9%167 W · 182 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Michigan State Spartans51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.421455.6%119 W · 95 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Michigan State Spartans52c39.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2320051.5%103 W · 97 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d9…7db4backed Michigan Wolverines52c38.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.751973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x81bb…8544backed Michigan Wolverines50c37.81$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193528.6%10 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-45.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfc8d…55c5backed Michigan State Spartans50c35.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.871266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Michigan Wolverines49c35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.851,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Michigan State Spartans48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.493447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked Michigan State Spartans51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1536248.6%176 W · 186 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Michigan Wolverines50c26.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.358345.5%265 W · 318 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.