Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8bc15dfe12e72b641cc221e85f6423c2b2def1cc73c4ed5c159f571df37f43f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, Michigan State Spartans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0900…3e1dbacked Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 19,190$9,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,786.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…9b1abacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 19,190$9,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,786.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 12,569$6,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,409.57 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 5,167$2,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,635.09 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 3,726$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.52 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 3,279$1,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.27 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 2,051$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.02 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 1,272$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.39 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 935.05$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.05 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 931.09$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.23 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…c40cbacked Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 750$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 681.64$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.96 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 600.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.38 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 500.04$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.84 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Michigan State Spartans | 46c | 442.39$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 420.46$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.39 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 340.92$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 227.79$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.62 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 221.76$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd5…e025backed Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 220.37$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b4…b5e8backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 204.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 199.06$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.54 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 194.44$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 118.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 116.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…78edbacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Michigan State Spartans | 57c | 88.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 82.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Michigan State Spartans | 47c | 78.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 74.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f2…1255backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 51.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 51.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 204 | 52.9%108 W · 96 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234d…e8e1backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 226 | 56.2%127 W · 99 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 47.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 214 | 55.6%119 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 39.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d9…7db4backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 38.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81bb…8544backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 37.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…55c5backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 35.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 26.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-1.5)this page
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan Wolverines won
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 145.5Over won
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 147.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.