Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccff2ccfadbe238f5f5bedd7db2fe1add5d779b1ce6d56a1c8789474b4f5314e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7ab…6412backed Yes | 1c | 926.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 479.99$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.03 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 3c | 449.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 353.39$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.34 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 330.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 13c | 303.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 27c | 262.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 210$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 54c | 167.4$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 139$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 109.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 104.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 79c | 95.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 42c | 82.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 68c | 79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked Yes | 75c | 75.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 68.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 68.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 43c | 65.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…4806backed Yes | 19c | 61.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 61.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 59.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 56.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 34c | 52.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 50.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 68c | 44.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 35c | 40.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 71c | 39.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 67c | 32.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 30.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 74c | 25.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 21.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 77c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C or higher on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.