Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48311f57ec23d436d400f57430f00d7f14e7debf33bdd30a97c5849dca68d5a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 5c | 1,095$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 479.52$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.45 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 300.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 279.72$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 278.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 14c | 245.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 5c | 232.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 25c | 211.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.65 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 208.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 202.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.77 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 194$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 6c | 171.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 20c | 168.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 168.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…8dadbacked Yes | 28c | 163.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.02 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 34c | 148.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 141.66$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 124$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed Yes | 28c | 95.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 29c | 94.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 29c | 93.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 86.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 14c | 79.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 76c | 78.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 40c | 67.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 34c | 67.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 41c | 64.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 21c | 59.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…efe0backed No | 69c | 54.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 50c | 46.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 43.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 69c | 39.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 35c | 36.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 61c | 32.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 32.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 62c | 32.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 56c | 30.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…4806backed No | 61c | 25.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 22.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 79c | 20.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C or higher on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.