Tennis · resolved market
ITF Bali: Keisuke Saitoh vs Sam Ryan Ziegann
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccff684c7e26fd4d7f1a4c64d71798e4eb1fe17aced64273fb4f21bdd8200458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sam Ryan Ziegannof Keisuke Saitoh, Sam Ryan Ziegann
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Keisuke Saitoh | 64c | 7,355$4,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,702.19 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sam Ryan Ziegann | 39c | 5,905$2,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,620.63 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…af4fbacked Sam Ryan Ziegann | 55c | 812.81$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.16 | 277 | 24.9%69 W · 208 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sam Ryan Ziegann | 34c | 811.17$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.09 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Sam Ryan Ziegann | 31c | 411.5$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.8 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed Keisuke Saitoh | 76c | 302.46$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.88 | 147 | 57.1%84 W · 63 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Sam Ryan Ziegann | 35c | 264.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Sam Ryan Ziegann | 43c | 228.49$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.34 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sam Ryan Ziegann | 22c | 226.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.96 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Sam Ryan Ziegann | 45c | 182.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.85 | 269 | 21.2%57 W · 212 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa63d…d405backed Keisuke Saitoh | 57c | 179.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked Keisuke Saitoh | 18c | 133$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…7533backed Keisuke Saitoh | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Keisuke Saitoh | 20c | 98.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Sam Ryan Ziegann | 26c | 98.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 431 | 44.8%193 W · 238 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…5858backed Sam Ryan Ziegann | 19c | 94.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 230 | 30.4%70 W · 160 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Sam Ryan Ziegann | 65c | 69.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Keisuke Saitoh | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Keisuke Saitoh | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Keisuke Saitoh | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Keisuke Saitoh | 77c | 62.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Keisuke Saitoh | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7144…16a8backed Sam Ryan Ziegann | 50c | 57.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Keisuke Saitoh | 48c | 55.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…7d0fbacked Sam Ryan Ziegann | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Sam Ryan Ziegann | 56c | 49.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Keisuke Saitoh | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Keisuke Saitoh | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Sam Ryan Ziegann | 40c | 30.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Keisuke Saitoh | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Keisuke Saitoh | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.