Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd0c70f32ea335a8817a2f03550da0f6c8e4a6a647008e5a1bb107dcb2eb009c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 451.81$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 424.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 24c | 364.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 247.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 216.14$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 71c | 206.24$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 201$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…6505backed Yes | 10c | 199.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked Yes | 19c | 181.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 176.82$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f49…cc93backed Yes | 18c | 162.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 162.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 160.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 160$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 24c | 148.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 147.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 134.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 129.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 14c | 109$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 106.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 76c | 101.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 28c | 100.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 11c | 88.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 76.22$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 76c | 72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 16c | 70.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed Yes | 25c | 65.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 74c | 62.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 47.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 47.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 45.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 74c | 33.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 31.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 76c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 25.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 80c | 25.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…1d44backed No | 73c | 20.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 20.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 14.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 100-101°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 104-105°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on July 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.