Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd50e44345b6521936c886bd7ee1da981837420765bd10f4cc16112130940990f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 382.97$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 343.67$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 41c | 300$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 252.98$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 220.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 220.37$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.21 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 219.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 56c | 166.94$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed No | 64c | 155.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 26c | 138$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 122.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 43c | 120.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 103.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 29c | 102.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 41c | 102.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 57c | 101.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 42c | 100.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 52c | 99.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 94.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 89.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 55c | 83.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 82.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 80.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 60c | 74.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 67c | 73.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 56c | 58.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 58.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 31c | 57.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 44c | 56.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 54.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 41c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f49…cc93backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 26c | 47.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…2919backed Yes | 45c | 43.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 42.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 60c | 41.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 33.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 33.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 59c | 26.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 56c | 25.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 58c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 54c | 24.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 73c | 24.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 58c | 24.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 54c | 20.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 60c | 19.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 56c | 18.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…3056backed No | 73c | 16.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 100-101°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 104-105°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on July 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.