Music · resolved market
Will "Lost Weekend" - Phoebe Bridgers first week album sales be 90k or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd2a0c96a5c0399829f2b94a3e8c619bdc314b92a090d5a18c9c131c894cd82d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 1c | 1,361$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 71c | 636.7$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.29 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes | 24c | 325.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.76 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 12c | 317$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 4c | 281.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 28c | 238.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 208.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.22 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 38c | 135$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 32c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 105.1$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 47c | 64.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 47c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 76cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 27c | 44.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 80c | 20.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…80c0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899f…da49backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Lost Weekend" - Phoebe Bridgers first week album sales be 90k or more?this page
- Will "Lost Weekend" - Phoebe Bridgers first week album sales be between 45k and 60k?No won
- Will "Lost Weekend" - Phoebe Bridgers first week album sales be between 75k and 90k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.