South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC vs. EC Bahia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd44f97c22eaedf6481ad211322667d5fe83901ef436cd9d96f8e526cbbc37fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 53c | 2,232$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.4 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 26c | 1,563$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.61 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 6c | 405.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 36c | 350.31$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked No | 5c | 261.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked No | 5c | 208.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 27c | 206.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.04 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Yes | 50c | 200.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…a06abacked Yes | 29c | 195.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.35 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked No | 12c | 174.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 165.54$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 64c | 128.27$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 20c | 125.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.19 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…fb0fbacked Yes | 16c | 121.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 15c | 120.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.72 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 33c | 118.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 63c | 85.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 84.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 56c | 84.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 24c | 70.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…e5aabacked Yes | 22c | 67.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 59c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed No | 80c | 57.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed No | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 50.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 72c | 46.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 50c | 44.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 28c | 39.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 133 | 73.7%98 W · 35 L | +22.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 54c | 23.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 79c | 23.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 49c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 74c | 19.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa867…71abbacked Yes | 70c | 17.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC vs. EC Bahia end in a draw?this page
- Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-03?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.