South American Leagues · resolved market
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ae18d68495a9005b4725d2c7484e9f30f3869a3223d53d5e65ea0fc4254188a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea32…8870backed No | 76c | 4,219$3,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.66 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Yes | 24c | 3,900$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 21c | 1,552$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.92 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 1,224$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.01 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed No | 79c | 597.74$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.53 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 17c | 426.34$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…66b3backed No | 76c | 330.31$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 79c | 257.04$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 22c | 240.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Yes | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 117 | 63.2%74 W · 43 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8b03backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…fdb5backed No | 77c | 129.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 162 | 62.3%101 W · 61 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 23c | 118.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…aaa3backed Yes | 19c | 107.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 78c | 99.8$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 75c | 98.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 76c | 97.17$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 21c | 90.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +6.1wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +67%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Yes | 24c | 83.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 67.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…fc59backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 50.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 79c | 20.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-03?this page
- Will São Paulo FC vs. EC Bahia end in a draw?Yes won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.